Thursday, September 30, 2004

It's Digby's turn...

...to dive down the memory hole.
Do note that, much as Dean's nomination is inevitable, it is also inevitable that at some point in the not-too-distant future, his nomination will cease to look inevitable. Nevertheless, it will still be inevitable as has been clear for some time. When you combine the most impassioned supporters with what's obviously the best-run campaign, and the most money, you're looking at a winner.
While those were the actual sentiments of a particular person (not Digby) last December, they were fairly representative of wide opinion in the then Deaner dominated lefty blogosphere. Sentiments like that, in fact, were no small part of my motivation for starting Upper Left in the first place, because I thought they were just as silly then as I think much of the handwringing about Kerry's poll position from many of the same sources is now.

There are days when I wish I could improve on Digby's take, there are days I actually try and there are days when I just give up and quote him verbatim. This is one of the latter days. Here's the quote (spiced up, as usual, with my emphasis).
The reality is that this race is close. It is NOT clear that Kerry has lost momentum. It is simply unknowable from the polls who has momentum, if anyone, and whether Kerry is ahead by a few points or behind by a few points --- because the race is close. These divergent polls are likely the result of the impact of technology on polling methods finally coming to fruition, a shifting undecided electorate as they finally tune in heavily and some very bad polling methods that don't matter a lot when the race is a blowout. We simply don't know anything more than that the race is within spitting distance for both candidates at this point.
Remember - if any of your favorite bloggers offering profound predictions were so damn smart (present company included) we'd have six figure consulting contracts, not PayPal buttons.

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