New Hampshire numerology

Enough time has finally passed to clear all the pre-Iowa number out of the tracking polls, so the new numbers should provide a clearer picture of where things are, as well as where they're headed.

The latest from ARG:

Kerry 31 (+4)
Clark 20 (+1)
Dean 18 (-4)
Edwards 11 (+2)
Lieberman 7 (even)

Dean's favorable is down 1, to 30, and his unfavorable up 12, to 42. My bet is he ends up in a fight with Edwards for third instead of a struggle with Clark for second.

Kerry's holding an extremely high favorable rating of 77%, which portends good things as the undecideds start to break. The only other candidate with a favorable rating over 50% is Edwards, who's at 56, which should propel him past Dean over the weekend.

The first post-Iowa national numbers I've seen are from the Rasmussen poll, and they reflect a nationwide bounce for Kerry and Edwards.

Results from the first two days after the Iowa caucus:

Kerry 29
Edwards 16
Dean 14
Clark 12

Rasmussen also has fresh matchup numbers comparing the leading Democrats face to face with Bush:

Bush, 45 Kerry, 40
Bush, 45 Edwards, 39
Bush, 49 Dean, 38