Saturday, January 24, 2004

Mommy, mommy! Johnny was mean to me!

That's the essence of Howard Dean's analysis of his Iowa collapse. His latest whine is that a briefing book issued to precinct captains by the John Edwards campaign was an example of a "dirty trick" that cost Dean a victory.

Here's a quick hit from the clue bong, Governor. Nothing that happened inside a caucus room cost you a victory. You lost because despite your grandiose claims of iron clad supporters and an invincible organization, you couldn't deliver delegate to the caucus rooms.

I haven't seen any evidence at all that Edwards precinct captains were causing large numbers of Dean supporters to switch with their scripted arguement that Dean is a "Park Avenue elitist." People who may have switched from Dean to Edwards apparently did so before they arrived at their caucus, and Edwards, with what everyone (including me) assumed was a smaller and less effective organization, delivered those voters.

The Dean smoke and mirrors campaign collapsed of its own accord. Dean didn't have the votes and his organization, rooted in the importation of thousands of out of state callers and canvassers, proved singularly ineffective in delivering the votes he did have. Playing the blame game doesn't change that, and doesn't promise a favorable turn for the Dean campaign in the near future.

We're seeing smoke and mirrors round two right now. The arguement has been made that Dean's still in OK shape because he still has a pile of cash and he's running a 50 state campaign. Well, that argument doesn't square with this news...

" Dean has cut back his television advertising in states with Feb. 3 contests to concentrate his spending on New Hampshire. He is pouring in about $500,000 through Tuesday's primary and his ads in New Mexico ended Wednesday. Commercials in South Carolina and Arizona will stop running this weekend."

How much of that $40 mill is left? Who knows. They're not saying. But not enough, apparently, to support the campaign in the February 3 states, let alone 50.

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