I'm back...

she's hitched and there's lot of news.

First, some numbers.

New ARG Polls for Arizona, Oklahoma and South Carolina, and their first look at Delaware and Missouri


Arizona

Kerry 32 (+8)
Clark 21 (even)
Edwards 11 (-4)
Dean 10 (even)
Lieberman 9 (+2)
Kucinich 1 (+1)
Undec 16 (-7)

There seems to be a strong move toward Kerry from the undecided column. This is beginning to look like a Missouri level lock.

Oklahoma

Clark 25 (+2)
Kerry 23 (+6)
Edwards 18 (even)
Dean 8 (even)
Lieberman 8 (-2)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Sharpton 1 (even)
Undec 16 (-6)

One more poll with this kind of shift, and Clark risks seeing his strongest state slip away.

South Carolina

Edwards 30 (+9)
Kerry 23 (+6)
Clark 12 (-2)
Dean 9 (even)
Sharpton 10 (-5)
Lieberman 3 (-2)
Kucinich 1 (even)
Undec 12 (-6)

Edwards appears to have the edge, but the raw numbers conceal Kerry's success with Black voters in South Carolina. He's running neck and neck with Rev. Al and five points ahead of Edwards. There's a high (19%) uncommitted among Black voters, and the trendlines favor Kerry. He could find his hand strengthened among the White voters where Edwards advantage lies with help from the endorsement of former DNC Chair and current SC DNC Committeman Don Fowler.

I'm still looking for a Kerry upset here.

Delaware

Kerry 27
Lieberman 16
Dean 14
Edwards 9
Clark 8
Kucinich 1
Sharpton 1
Undec 24

Yes, Joe, you're above threshold. No, Joe, you won't win. Please, Joe, make it stop.


Missouri

Kerry 46
Edwards 15
Dean 7
Clark 6
Lieberman 3
Kucinich 1
Sharpton 1
Uncomm 6
Undec 15

(Uncommitted is a ballot selection in Missouri)

The only question here is whether Edwards can really finish above threshold.